For ten years I have been told that a hydrogen infrastructure is the main thing keeping us from hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The problem is framed as a Chicken and Egg type dilemma. Should the cars come before the infrastructure, or vice versa? After studying how other infrastructures were developed, I am convinced that a hydrogen infrastructure will only be developed if it is preceded by the release of hydrogen fuel-cell cars.
History Supports This Theory
When America transitioned from using coal to natural gas for heating homes, a new infrastructure was needed. Everything from storage, pipelines, delivery trucks, and dispenser systems were needed to get natural gas to its users (who would want to mass produce natural gas furnaces without an infrastructure?). The transition didn’t happen over night. Natural gas furnaces started out as a luxury item that only the rich could afford—they were clean, convenient, and environmentally friendly. The demand for natural gas from the rich drove the development of better infrastructure. The new infrastructure, in turn, made natural gas more available and more affordable. Gradually more and more people could afford the switch. In fact, natural gas eventually became less expensive than coal. The transition from coal to natural gas happened simultaneous to the development of the infrastructure, but it was led by people’s demand for natural gas furnaces (the end product).
Many other industries underwent similar transitions:
- Wood to Coal
- Telegraph to Telephone
- Candles to Kerosene Lamps
- Horse and Buggy to Automobile
- Kerosene Lamps to Electricity
- Dial-Up to Broadband Internet
Other industries were started from scratch rather than transitioning from a previous industry. They still required a new infrastructure:
- Radio
- Television
- Cell Phones
It’s obvious the need for new infrastructure is nothing new. All of these products started out as expensive luxury items with little or no infrastructure. Their infrastructures developed gradually (not to be confused with slowly). This development happened simultaneous to the products being adopted. And because all of these products were better/more affordable than their predecessors, they all developed into the industry standard. Hydrogen could do the same.
A Lesson From the Automotive Industry
Hydrogen fuel-cell cars are not the first innovation to come out of the automotive industry. New innovations are a regular occurrence (IE: air conditioning, power windows & locks, power steering, and countless others). The manufacturers almost always begin by releasing these new features ONLY on their high-end models. The features that are really worthwhile quickly trickle down the model lines until they are available even on economy cars. The features that are less worthwhile either fade out or stay limited to the high end models. Why should fuel-cells be any different?
My Suggestion
Honda, Toyota, GM, Hyundai, and any other manufacturer who has the technology and ability should release a high-end, luxurious, expensive fuel-cell car on a limited basis. In fact, these cars should be released under the companies’ premium badges (IE: Acura, Lexus, Cadillac, etc.) The release should be limited to densely populated areas where a hydrogen fueling station already exists (IE: Los Angeles, San Fransisco, DC, etc.) These cars should be loaded with expensive, organic/recycled materials. They should be designed to appeal to movie stars, politicians, and athletes—anyone who wants to make a flashy statement about their status and the environment.
Kudos to Honda
Honda is already doing a form of what I’m suggesting. They are leasing their FCX Clarity for $600/mo. to a limited number of people in the Los Angeles area. I’m certain that a few new hydrogen dispensing stations will pop up as a result. What a great way to get the ball rolling!
What NOT To Do
I hear environmentalists, auto manufacturers, and hydrogen advocates all calling for the government to take the initiative and build a hydrogen infrastructure. The idea is that if an infrastructure were to be built in advance, the auto manufacturers could finally release their fuel-cell vehicles and go straight into mass production.
I’ve made it pretty clear that I hate the idea of asking the government take care of it. Not only would it undermine freedom, but it would be a huge project wrought with waste and inefficiency. It is simply impossible for Washington DC bureaucrats to predict where and how many fueling stations should be built. Some areas would suffer shortages while others would have a surplus that could only be supported by forcing the tax payers to subsidize it.
It is essential that we trust in the free market and the law of supply and demand. It’s the only way for the infrastructure to grow in the right places, at the right time, at the right speed.
Conclusion
If auto manufacturers release their fuel-cell vehicles as high-end, luxury cars; then environmental advocates with plenty of money will be able to purchase the cars. This will send a signal to service station owners and hydrogen distributors who will in turn build up their hydrogen distribution infrastructure.
As hydrogen becomes more available, it will get less expensive. As the price goes down, demand for it will go up. With the increased demand, the auto manufacturers will be able to increase their quantity and lower their prices. The transition to hydrogen will be gradual but not necessarily slow.
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