Archive for August, 2008

Electric Cars vs. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars

Friday, August 29th, 2008

About ten years ago, as I was learning the field of automotive repair, I watched as GM toyed with the EV1 which was followed shortly by Toyota and Honda’s hybrids. I was fascinated by the changing automotive horizon. Some industry buzz inspired me to write my term paper on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (I wish I still had a copy). Seeing EV1’s limitations and viewing hybrids as nothing more than a stepping stone, I was convinced that hydrogen would eventually replace gasoline as the world’s principle automotive fuel. While that could end up being the case, many believe that EVs have become an even better solution.

To understand the debate between electric cars vs. hydrogen fuel cell cars, it is important to understand that both cars are eventually driven by electric motors. The difference comes in the way the energy is stored. In electric cars the energy is stored in batteries. In hydrogen fuel cell cars the energy is stored in the from of hydrogen gas which is passed through a fuel cell to convert it to electricity.

So essentially, the real debate is between batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. Which one is more effective? That question isn’t easily answered because many factors such as cost, capacity, safety, reliability, accessibility, etc. all affect that decision. Ten years ago, I thought the answer was clear. What I never could have foreseen, though, was the surge in battery technology that would be brought on by the cell-phone craze. It’s left me believing that batteries might become better at storing energy than hydrogen (they’re not there yet).

Each of the two technologies have something going for them. EVs are benefiting from the already existent electrical infrastructure. Car makers aren’t as hesitant to build them knowing that customers will have a way to fuel them. Hydrogen, on the other hand, is simply better at storing large amounts of energy (Toyota’s Highlander Hybrid FCHV gets 80 miles per kg of hydrogen and has a driving range over 500 miles.)

Each technology also has a huge obstacle to overcome: Hydrogen has almost no infrastructure. Battery developers can’t seem to produce a battery that has all the characteristics they are looking for: safe, reliable, light-weight, small, affordable, long-lasting, powerful, etc. Many batteries fulfill a number of these requirements, but none have swept the table.

I don’t know if one will win out over the other, but both have huge potential. Wouldn’t you love to be a part of either industry when its obstacles are finally overcome?

What summer sales and MLM companies have in common and why I hate them both.

Monday, August 25th, 2008

The Pitch:

It’s always the same: “My friend knows this guy who made a bazillion dollars. All you have to do is [fill in the blank]. You could make a bazillion dollars too! If things go just okay, you’ll still make loads. And worst case scenario, at least you won’t lose anything.”

It blows my mind that people sell a product/position/business without ever talking about the product. What is it? Is it something I can truly believe in? Does it excite me? Is it really worth the asking price? Is it a hoax? What is the competition like? Are there better alternatives?

Summer sales and MLM companies don’t have products or competitive advantages that set them apart from their competition. Summer sales and MLM companies use business models that over-compensate a few high performers in order to attract hoards of average and under-achieving people, most of whom are under-compensated.

A Typical Summer Sales Business Model:

Here is what a typical summer sales pay scale would like (I’m not including numbers–just focus on the general trend):

Now compare that to a typical distribution of sales reps (based on how many sales each rep makes in a summer):

Notice that the vast majority of sales reps end up somewhere along the “bell” part of the curve. Superimpose that on the pay scale and you see that the company pays very little to these average and below average reps. The high performing reps lie out in the “long tail”. They are few, so the company can afford to grossly over pay them. This prepares a class of recruiters for the next year and sets the standard for all of next year’s hopefuls.

From a business’s standpoint, it’s a good model–assuming they have a large supply of new recruits each year. For a new recruit though, you better be better than average, fully committed, and hopefully even believe in what you are selling.

MLMs are Different:

Yes, MLMs have completely different business models from summer sales, but it’s still true that a few over-paid superstars are used to attract hoards of average and below-average people. That’s not a bad thing. It’s just important to understand the reality–you have to perform better than average to make good money.

Sell the Product!!

I know I can’t perform above average with a product I don’t believe in (in fact, I’m a dud if I don’t believe). So please; friends, family, and anyone else who is thinking to “recruit” me; tell me why your product is the greatest. Tell me its competitive advantages. Don’t tell me about you friend’s friend who made a bazillion dollars.

Note To my friends and family who have already approached me with proposals. This little rant was not a personal attack on anyone. I hold you all in the same high regard that I did before any proposal. I’m simply using my blog as a platform where I can take a general stance and let all three of my readers know. :~)

To All You Parents–Especially Mine

Sunday, August 24th, 2008

I just became a father. I used to hold many sympathies for parents–they are quickly becoming empathies:

Labor and Delivery:

WOW! Mom, hats off to you and a million thanks!

Exhaustion:

I wonder how many sleepless nights I caused.

Getting peed on:

I hope I got dad a time or two.

Pure Joy:

Was I this cute?


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